Black Swan : Black or White

Dear Friends,

   image from www.wwt.org.uk

 

Swan is always associated with the color White for a long long time, until someone spotted a black swan in Australia.

Some may argue that black swan is NOT “swan” because it does not have color white that has been very much a package of  “swan characteristics”. Maybe it should be called a-swan (meaning anti-swan, for example).

This, of course, is not totally incorrect for the sake of classroom argument. Though to an normal person, a black swan is a swan, very much like a black man is a human being.

There is a theory put forward by Nassim Nicholas Taleb on The Black Swan Theory. 

Taleb alerts us about the danger of using statistics  (or history) to forecast some future events. So by and large forecasting is a con business. (except maybe in weather forecast it gives us some preparation though by and large it is still very limited to short time span).

Taleb also pointed out that the world often experienced some substantial change due to ‘Black Swans” events, things that people do not anticipate beforehand. And that it is all too convenient and tempting to put forward some theory of causation for events that have happened. He argued that most often we do not really know the actual cause as it is a very complex, and in many instances, we have to admit there is an element of “luck” in it.

• Confucius advised us : “知之為知之，不知為不知，是知也.”  i.e., “knowing what we really know, and have the courage to admit what we do not know, that’s the most precious wisdom” 
• That’s to say, most often “I don’t know” is actually a very honest and good answer, though this is not good answer in most classrooms. So modern schools teach us to pretend we know when we do not really know.

In posting  Black or White: 泰否 Dynamics , I discussed how the Book of Change has warned us about the possibility of sudden change from peace to total disaster (i.e., from 泰 (Tai state) to 否 (Bi state)).

This is essentially “Black Swan” theory, only that Book of Change has warned us more than 2,500 years ago.

While it is impossible to forecast the next Black Swan, our ability to comprehend this phenomenon will help us to have an open and objective mind regarding  the various risk environment we are facing.

Before we can better tune-in to the phenomenon of Black Swan, it is recommended to think out of the box. Enjoy the following Youtube ;

Have fun finding the next Black Swan, if we can.

************************************************************************************************